What to think about the parade that Russia held on 9 May 2015 to celebrate the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in World War II? CSG Senior Fellow David Law offers his thoughts and analysis in this timely blog contribution.
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President Putin’s current mandate runs out in 2018. It has long been expected that he will go for a second six-year term – after two four-year terms from 2000-2008, followed by the Medvedev interregnum from 2008-2012. This would keep him in office until 2024, when he would attain the ripe old age of 72 or 73. This article outlines several reasons to assume that Putin’s time may be well shorter than this roadmap suggests.
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Since rereading the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit Declaration issued in Cardiff, Wales, David Law aims to put himself in President Putin’s place in order to understand how Putin, directly or through his advisors, would react to the Declaration. This article is an attempt at this exercise.
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Since April 2014, Russia had been waging a proxy war in eastern Ukraine. Although no war was officially declared, Russia’s covert and overt support was crucial in financing, equipping, providing personnel, and supplying intelligence to the pro-Russian separatists. Russia’s fateful decision to undertake a direct military incursion into southeastern Ukraine has turned what was previously only a proxy war into something undeniably real.
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While no war has officially been declared by Moscow, Russia’s covert and increasingly overt support has been crucial in financing, equipping, providing personnel, and supplying intelligence to the pro-Russian separatists. But it was not until rebels shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 with a Russian-supplied BUK surface-to-air missile, that many in Western media and policy circles began to acknowledge Moscow’s significant support for the pro-Russian separatists.
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Political turmoil in Ukraine is nothing new. One only needs to look at the 2004 Orange Revolution, when citizens mobilized throughout the country to protest the blatant election fraud of the November 2004 presidential elections and the pervasive corruption in their government. Yet Ukraine’s political crisis has intensified during the past year, carrying much broader international implications.
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Although Russia and China’s are unlikely to be allies, in terms of strategic issues, there are three areas in particular where their interests converge. In this article, the author highlights three of the areas in which these rising powers’ interests converge.
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Making R2P work more effectively lies in forging a consensus between the West and the world’s emerging (or re-emerging) powers. Somehow, a consensus will have to be forged between the West, India and Brazil’s desire to protest civilians and China and Russia’s efforts to defend their own raw interests and alliances.
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